hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

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LordDust
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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by LordDust » Sun Jun 24, 2018 10:57 pm

Thunder wrote:
Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:57 pm
It would be political suicide to implement a complete trade embargo. Organizations like Walmart are stocked almost 100% with chinese goods - they (and similar companies) will fight an embargo hard. The US economy would likely immediately go into a severe recession and the political backlash would be crippling. US manufacturing capability could not ramp up to provide all those goods for many years and most of their other trade partners don't manufacture them either. I don't have a crystal ball - but I would suggest a complete trade embargo is not going to happen.

Tariffs are much more likely, which means prices will rise for the consumer. Companies have to raise their prices to cover tariffs. It is likely that Dwarven Forge could get hit with a large tariff bill even for the rest of KS5, it just depends on when the tariffs take effect and for how much.

I would advise Dwarven Forge to carefully look into the category their products fall under regarding import classifications. Maybe even go chat with an import lawyer and though the lawyer doesn't have a crystal ball, she may be able to advise on their exposure.

Peace
There is a job (can't recall the title offhand, but I think it is something like "Classification Specialist") that is not a lawyer, but they do specialize in import and export rules for the USA. They often work on contract. The way it has been explained to me by such a person is that frequently a given thing can fall under several different possible classifications. It is possible to legally reclassify things by filing paperwork to change things that include tariffs, time held on dock (mandatory minimums for some things apparently), and other factors. These guys do the leg work on figuring that out for a living. So while they can't predict it either, hiring one briefly to figure out the cheapest possible legitimate classification could help a lot depending on how such a thing plays out. Of course, it is also possible that the tariffs they choose to employ will not affect the things we are concerned about here.

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Thunder » Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:57 pm

It would be political suicide to implement a complete trade embargo. Organizations like Walmart are stocked almost 100% with chinese goods - they (and similar companies) will fight an embargo hard. The US economy would likely immediately go into a severe recession and the political backlash would be crippling. US manufacturing capability could not ramp up to provide all those goods for many years and most of their other trade partners don't manufacture them either. I don't have a crystal ball - but I would suggest a complete trade embargo is not going to happen.

Tariffs are much more likely, which means prices will rise for the consumer. Companies have to raise their prices to cover tariffs. It is likely that Dwarven Forge could get hit with a large tariff bill even for the rest of KS5, it just depends on when the tariffs take effect and for how much.

I would advise Dwarven Forge to carefully look into the category their products fall under regarding import classifications. Maybe even go chat with an import lawyer and though the lawyer doesn't have a crystal ball, she may be able to advise on their exposure.

Peace

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by LordDust » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:51 pm

While theoretically possible a complete trade embargo is IMO very unlikely because of the amount of havoc it would wreak on the respective economies as other posters have noted. A tariff that could affect these goods is entirely possible, but isn't necessarily likely. I will pledge with that thought in mind.

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Rabbit Burner » Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:37 am

Talistran wrote:
Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:02 pm
While no one can predict Trump, it is in his personal best interest to keep China operating. And I trust our president to do what is best for him :)
You would like to think that, but recent comms from POTUS is to blame his decisions, which cause bad things, on the previous administration - fairly standard practice in politics (and business for that matter.)

We think if you are concerned then think twice about pledging, we tend to have the attitude of, whilst looking ahead, deal with the now as you can get dissappear up your own tail trying to predict the future.

We also think that this is a lot of bluster and distraction and nothing significant will change, but will keep an eye out
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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by jackattack » Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:00 am

If it comes, the tariff won’t be on “dungeon walls”, it will be on “PVC products” or “luxury goods”. And there won’t be exceptions for “tabletop RPG accessories”.

Given a full year between pledge and delivery, a potential tariff may well come during production. DF and/or the factory would have to eat the cost increase, or DF would have to solicit additional funds from pledgers. But once production has begun, it seems unlikely the factory would fully refund DF, nor that DF would be able to fully refund the pledges.

The possibility of a tariff, and DF’s potential responses/solutions to a tariff, should be added to the risks section when the campaign goes live.
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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Seraphis the Bland » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:48 pm

I had that anxiety for a bit as well, but ultimately I agree with others above that both China and the USA need each other too much to have any substantial blockage of goods. I'm going to back KS6, probably all-in because it looks amazing and THOSE RUINS. I feel like they really listened to us after KS5 complaints about teasing them so hard but then not offering them. Good job DF.

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by jazzman » Sat Jun 23, 2018 10:12 am

I believe that too, Dice. They will tariff stuff with substantial trade - not dungeon walls. :)

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by dice4hire » Sat Jun 23, 2018 5:48 am

I cannot see either of the governments having any awareness of our tiny niche or our tiny niche having enough money in it to be worth slapping tariffs on.

I would not worry about it.
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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by kitenerd » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:26 am

May you live in interesting times...

Canada is supposed to be boycotting US goods... any of our Canadian brethren going to sit out KS 6 just to spite Trump?... yeah, i didn't think so ;)

I agree with Talistran - China is dependent on the conspicuous consumption of ugly Americans and the US is addicted to ridiculously low priced consumer goods - anything that threatens that would be a calamity. Any sanctions/boycotts would be targeted at very specific industries or segments. If we get to the point where dungeon walls are in jeopardy, we all have far greater financial worries than the few hundred (or several thousand) dollars we pledged to a KS.
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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Talistran » Fri Jun 22, 2018 9:02 pm

The current situation is VERY similar to the nukes with the Russians.

There is a LOT of bluffing, hotheadedness, and idiocy. Talk talk talk yell yell complain. But at the end of the day, China cannot afford to not be producing for the US and the US will not survive without Chinese production. The dollar would PLUMMET.

While no one can predict Trump, it is in his personal best interest to keep China operating. And I trust our president to do what is best for him :)

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