hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by LordDust » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:49 pm

ShaynePatrick wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:33 pm
3-5 years. W-t-F? I've never (thankfully) had one take that long. That's insane.

Mind sharing what it was?
I'm not Forar, but my KS I backed that ran latest was the Twisting Catacombs KS. I'm pretty conservative when I back though and I kind of gently grill creators to see if they have some clue about manufacturing unless they have a track record. So far every KS I have backed has delivered and most within 6 months of the promised date or less. A couple have slipped pretty far though. I'm okay with delays here and there, it can't always be helped with this kind of stuff. I have to say though that 3-5 years is too much for me!

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by ShaynePatrick » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:33 pm

Forar80 wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:15 pm
And yeah, I've had campaigns take so many years that the value of what I paid shifted pretty substantially by the time it actually delivered (on the 3-5+ year range). That is, indeed, life on a major Kickstarter or two.
3-5 years. W-t-F? I've never (thankfully) had one take that long. That's insane.

Mind sharing what it was?

As far as planning goes, they could lock in a quote a month or two in advance. Currency fluctuations, however, happen all the time, and sometimes are quite drastic (see EUR/USD back in 2012). There is no protection, other than paying as soon as you can.

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Forar80 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 6:15 pm

ShaynePatrick wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:36 pm
Currencies float in a global marketplace and fluctuate based on a variety of different factors. Fluctuation in value can happen regardless of a trade war.
The pickle we may find ourselves in is a result of the shortsightedness of the US, Canada, and EU - for not cultivating other manufacturing centers (Africa, Vietnam, S. America, etc), so that should we have a tiff regarding trade, all our collective eggs would not be in one basket.

Most KS campaigns should have a plan for production cost increases.
All creators should have contingency plans, and at least be aware of the current state of world/economic affairs, at least in proportion to their expected/final finances. Someone pulling in a grand needs to worry about such fluctuations less than someone who pulls in a million or two.

But at 6 figures or higher, it's not exactly easy to set a baseline that also accounts for 'this might cost like 20-30% more by the time we're making or shipping it'. The complaints with each campaign as it goes by that we're getting fewer pieces for our dollars haven't exactly gotten quieter, and if DF knocks that down another 25% or so, it will be noticed.

Even if it's not always a perfectly fair comparison. I guarantee you that it won't be long before people are lining up parts counts and square inches per encounter, within KS6 and against KS5. And yeah, I've had campaigns take so many years that the value of what I paid shifted pretty substantially by the time it actually delivered (on the 3-5+ year range). That is, indeed, life on a major Kickstarter or two.

It's certainly not something people should be panicking about, but I'd certainly hope that the DF team has a grasp on things and what contingency plans might need to be in place in case things do heat up by the time this is going to production. I have faith in Nate and Stefan and co, but we can still muse aloud that world issues might affect our hobby and the pricing found in the next campaign. And it's fair to ask aloud if they have given this thought and what their plans/contingencies might be, at least that they're willing to share with us.

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by William » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:37 pm

Run for your lives people............. it's..............
Tariffageddon..........true Doom to all wallets.
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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by ShaynePatrick » Mon Jun 25, 2018 2:36 pm

Currencies float in a global marketplace and fluctuate based on a variety of different factors. Fluctuation in value can happen regardless of a trade war.
The pickle we may find ourselves in is a result of the shortsightedness of the US, Canada, and EU - for not cultivating other manufacturing centers (Africa, Vietnam, S. America, etc), so that should we have a tiff regarding trade, all our collective eggs would not be in one basket.

Most KS campaigns should have a plan for production cost increases.

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Forar80 » Mon Jun 25, 2018 11:12 am

There have been projects that had issues like this in the past. The first Heavy Gear KS by Dream Pod 9, I believe, had an issue with holding the funds in one currency (Canadian dollars, I believe) while working with US factories. Between the completion of the campaign and production, the currencies saw a substantial shift in value, meaning the dollars they had at campaign end no longer bought quite as much as they did when it was time to start paying bills.

While not a perfect contrast (and some have levied critique at DP9 for their actions), I believe in the end they ended up delivering the vast majority of what had been lined up, with a couple of models being removed from the pipeline.

Basically, what I'm saying is that there might be other options present than 'fully deliver while eating massive losses' and 'get refunds where possible'. Coming back for extra cash could be an option, distasteful as many might find it (yes, even while recognizing that DF certainly has no clout over the US government). So might reducing the scope (trimming a couple of molds from the production pipeline, reducing the piece counts in sets, etc, to make the budgets line up). Do note that I'm talking about extraordinary measured in the event of extenuating circumstances. When DF does a KS and says that they'll be sending me 40 floor pieces, I fully expect to get 40 floor pieces. But if trade war shenanigans happen to catch them in the crossfire, I would understand that in order to survive as a company, hard choices could have to be made.

It is indeed something we should all keep in mind. I would hate to see KS6 flounder where it shouldn't have due to this kind of uncertainty, but this is just another reason why the whole 'trade wars are easy to win' rhetoric is a load of bull. The damage isn't just done through tariffs and hits to supply/demand/raw goods/etc (I'm not an economist, but ye gods have there been plenty of articles about this lately..), but the uncertainty these back and forths can cause. We're seeing it right now, and it'll be lasting damage for months and years to come, as the risk remains that a temperamental politician might abruptly change course at any moment, and both individuals and businesses need to act accordingly.

I'm certainly not one of the whale backers, but I like to think I've been a reliable dolphin since KS1. This uncertainty won't preclude my participation, even with the shipping costs to the frozen wastes to the north making an expensive purchase (by my budget's standards) even more expensive, as expected, but it will likely temper any risks of my going much over my standard budget.

Basically treating it as a bit of a gamble, and not fronting any more than I'm prepared to lose, despite DF KS's being one of my gold standards in terms of quality and reliability.

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Rabbit Burner » Mon Jun 25, 2018 9:17 am

Any trade war with China that affects DF will effect all of DF customers Stateside and abroad unless DF themselves can eat the extra costs.

The extra cost will be factored into the selling price and will not affect the shipping cost.

In a KS DF factors in VAT or Import duty as well as shipping costs, the retail shop does not, it only adds shipping, you pay the import duty on arrival.

Us non-US backers will have some increased costs, but only due to VAT and Import duty being applied to the higher cost of buying Dwarvenite.
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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by Rhizom » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:29 am

marcoreds wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:19 am
from an EU point of view
I think, from an EU point of view, this could get even worse. Maybe not for the DF Kickstarters, which have a container going directly to EU, but for buying retail in the DF shop (what I also do every now and then...). Think of first another 30% on the price in the shop due to the situation with China, and then another 30% VAT/Customs + 30% shipping for getting the Dwarvenite to my home in the EU. It could become even more expensive for us Europe-DF-buyers...

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by marcoreds » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:19 am

And mind it, I do understand that, from an EU point of view, the answer is: "if US wares were not applied these extra, then it would be unfair towards EU producers, who do have to apply them".

But from your point of view, it is a question worth asking (because this "extra" is taxes that go to the various EU countries - who says these taxes should go to the country these wares get sold to, rather than the country where they are produced?).

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Re: hate to bring up the trade war with china, but...

Post by marcoreds » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:14 am

Guys, I live in Italy, so I am somewhat extraneous to your government's choices.

One thing I can say though.

Whenever I buy thing from US, I get charged 22% VAT, plus customs duties. In the end everything I buy from US costs me around 30% more (excluded shipping, and also on shipping there is this same +30%).

I don't think a line like "why do EU countries apply us a 30% charge on everything we sell them, when we apply no charges (or maybe just custom charges) to their wares" makes no sense.

And mind it, I am one of those who would be hit by this decisions.

But thinking about it in an impartial way, it totally is a sensible question.

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